A normal monsoon will augur well for the country's agriculture sector and boost crop yields. However, good rains - and surplus crops - could also depress prices, hurting farm income, unless adequate steps are taken.
It has also predicted a below normal monsoon for the season with a Long Period Average of 93 per cent, subject to the error margin of 5 per cent.
Riding high on the hopes of a normal monsoon, the agriculture ministry aims to increase foodgrain production by 6.35 million tonnes to a record 298.3 million tonnes in the 2020-21 crop year. The foodgrain output in the 2019-20 crop year (July-June) is estimated at an all-time high 291.95 million tonnes, as per the second advance estimates released by the ministry in February.
Light to moderate rain in many areas with heavy rain at isolated places is likely to occur in West Bengal's coastal districts of North 24 Parganas, South 24 Parganas and Purba Medinipur.
According to the IMD forecast, monsoon is likely to be normal this year.
'Due to this sudden phenomenon, guests stopped visiting the homes of these villages, girls and boys from these villages were not getting proposals; students were reluctant to attend schools and colleges for fear of being shamed.'
The river, 17 km of which pass through Vadodara, is home to some 300 crocodiles and an encounter with these reptiles is a common occurrence for those living in areas along its banks, the official said.
Skymet is the first major Indian weather forecasting agency to have issued a monsoon forecast for 2016.
Automobile (auto) retail sales in India grew by an impressive 14 per cent in July compared to the same period last year, driven by a surge in the rural economy, good product availability, and product launches. While passenger vehicles (PVs) saw a 10 per cent increase during this period, inventory levels have surged to a historic high of 67-72 days in PVs, equating to Rs 73,000 crore worth of stock, according to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (Fada). This poses a risk to dealer sustainability. Inventory levels in July 2023 were only 50-55 days, equating to a stock worth Rs 49,833 crore. In June 2024, inventory was between 62 and 67 days, with a stock value of Rs 60,000 crore.
Ten to 20 days of heatwave are expected against the normal of four to eight days in the entire April-June period.
Till Thursday, the country had received 41 per cent less June rainfall than normal - the scantiest in a decade and one of the rarest occasions when the shortfall in the month was more than 30 per cent - private weather forecaster Skymet said in its daily weather forecast on Friday.
All sub-regions have been receiving good rainfall except the North-east and east region of the country, where the deficiency has reached 23 per cent.
A depression over the southeast Arabian Sea, south of Porbandar in Gujarat, is likely to move northwestward and intensify into a cyclonic storm, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday.
According to Skymet Weather, the initial surge in the Monsoon rains can be attributed to the transition of El Nino into the neutral phase.
A third of FMCG sales and half of motorcycle sales come from the hinterlands
The June-September monsoon has so far delivered 1 per cent higher rainfall than average
Monsoon is critical for the country's 263 million farmers and their rice, cane, corn, cotton and soybean crops because nearly half of its farmland lacks irrigation.
For the second successive year, Monsoon is likely to be below normal with parts of north-west and central India to be the most affected.
Any long dry spell could cause moisture stress in the standing crop during the crucial maturing stage and also make it prone to pest and disease attacks.
Higher inflation has again become a matter of concern for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. After prices of commodities like sugar and wheat moved higher and stabilised at those levels, the crude oil too surged, adding to FMCG firms' worries. Besides, a dry spell in August in the ongoing monsoon season impacted rural demand.
Many low-lying areas in West Bengal's sub-Himalayan region were reeling from a flood-like situation while major rivers in Bihar were flowing above the danger level at several places as unabated heavy rain lashed the country's eastern parts on Sunday.
A likely western disturbance over north India during the weekend might cause heavy to very heavy showers in a few places, including New Delhi.
A total of 435 people died in the country due to extreme weather events during the last three months of the southwest monsoon, according to the data compiled by the India meteorological department.
Heatwave conditions have been prevailing in Odisha since April 15 and the Gangetic West Bengal since April 17, according to the MeT department.
Monsoon normally hits Kerala on June 1 but this year, Met department had predicted that it will hit the state on June 5.
The southwest monsoon which reached the country on May 30 well within its normal onset date
Less-than-expected rainfall and a poor spatial distribution, experts say, can rekindle fears of a rise in food and fuel inflation that can have an impact on the RBI's monetary policy. The fear of less than optimal rainfall due to El Nino this year, analysts believe, is the biggest short-term risk for the markets, which they said has not been fully priced in yet by them. Monsoon set over Kerala on June 08, a week later than its scheduled date.
'It affects our economy, it is very important in many ways.' 'So we have to be the foremost experts in the world on the monsoon.' 'But the best minds in India have not devoted their time to the study of monsoon and they have followed the fashions of the West.'
On December 1and 2, flood-ravaged Chennai received more rainfall in 24 hours than it had seen on any day since 1901, according to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
The load-shedding has been in force for the last several months as the water level in reservoirs depleted drastically due to deficient rainfall last year.
The IMD said that there has been an increase in the rainfall activity in Kerala and monsoon could hit the state anytime now.
After a strong show during the September quarter (Q2FY25) and favourable demand conditions, going ahead, the country's largest player in the room air conditioner segment, Voltas is well placed to improve its market share. Expectations of record volumes in FY25 for the sector and the company's strategy of prioritising market share over margins could help the leader expand share in the room AC segment.
Paucity of monsoon rainfall alone is not a sufficient determinant of drought, maintains the World Meteorological Organisation.
In view of high inflation and deficient monsoon rainfall, the Reserve Bank may find it difficult to cut the key lending rate to boost the economy as is being demanded by the industry.
Lakhs of voters will have to bear the searing heat when they step out to exercise their franchise in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections on Friday.
Expected to be over 100% of long average period.
'It is the most prone month for the development of cyclones in the pre-monsoon period.'
